Fire weather outlook

Southern Area: Coverage of drought across the Southern Area continued to decrease in June. However, dryness has begun to re-emerge over Texas in recent weeks, while rainfall has been hit and miss in the rest of the region.

Drought has also carried into early July over the Florida peninsula, with areas of severe drought scattered around and extreme drought over the southeast. Drier conditions in mid to late June can be attributed to surges of dusty and stable Saharan air that have limited thunderstorm activity.

In terms of fuels, the beginning of the growing season has been exceptionally wet throughout most of the region. Well above average herbaceous fuel loads will eventually impact the fire environment, likely beginning in the Plains sooner than later as high evaporative demand and potential flash drought accelerates the curing process.

Grass loading is more of a factor in fire risk during the windier times of year after freeze-curing results in dead fine fuels, but as occurred last summer, exceptional grass loads can also act as a conduit for spreading fire to the fuels that are more volatile in summer.

Some of the long-term drought combined with oak wilt and freeze or ice storm damage in Texas has left abundant dead fuels. Wet soils and a continued wet pattern in the Mississippi Valley, Appalachian states, and Southeast will ease any concerns associated with drought- or beetle-killed pine trees and hurricane debris for the next few months, but confidence is lower once we move into the fall fire season.

It is too early to say what the start of the fall fire season will look like during the latter half of October. Most of the hardwood-dominant areas that start to see fires during this period have been wet and are expected to see above average rainfall the next few months.

Abundant fuels left behind by Helene, other tropical systems the last few years, recent ice storms and this year’s higher-than-average severe thunderstorm occurrence could all begin to factor in during October, but confidence is low for now. Once drier conditions develop this fall and leaves begin to drop, a rapid increase in significant fire potential could occur over western North Carolina and adjacent areas, with still abundant fine dead fuels and increased availability of heavy dead fuels from Helene, in addition to lingering access issues in the mountains.

ENSO-neutral conditions are currently favored through the end of the year, but forecasts should be monitored for any trends towards La Niña, as this could enhance the risk for an active fall fire season.

Fire numbers

MONTH AND YEAR-TO-DATE COMPARISON TO PREVIOUS 5- AND 10-YEAR AVERAGE