Southern Area: Welcome rainfall in May is helping to ease water woes for most of the coastal Southeast as the summer arrives. Long-term anomalies remain significant for the coastal Carolinas, where deficits are on the order of 8-15 inches since October 1.
Some changes were made to the previous outlook for June across the coastal Southeast, mainly due to improving conditions that occurred during May. Rainfall patterns for June are of lower confidence in the Southeast, but a dry pattern will set in during early June from central Florida northward to the Carolinas. There are hints of a mid-June tropical system that could be important in fully diminishing fire risks in areas such as the Florida peninsula that typically see large fires continue as lightning starts pick up as the rainy season commences, but the track of this yet-to develop disturbance is highly suspect. Farther to the northeast, the coastal Carolinas observed drought relief in May but are looking to dry back out for at least the start of June. Most long-range models depict drier than average conditions along the immediate coast in North Carolina and South Carolina, which could be problematic in the region’s deep and still dry organic soils. Above normal significant fire potential is maintained into June for the coastal Carolinas and South Florida due to the ongoing impacts from drought. An extension of these conditions later into the summer cannot be ruled out in the Carolinas but is of low confidence for now.
September is typically one of the quietest months for wildland fire across the Southern Area, but any lingering drought could certainly sway subsequent outlooks. An active hurricane season and impacts to the US coastline are a near certainty with near-record warm water adjacent to the coast, but where these systems track is unclear this far out. Analog guidance suggests the East Coast may be more at risk than in 2024. Although September would normally be too early to be a concern in the heavily shaded Appalachians, any drought late in the summer in areas impacted by Hurricane Helene could result in an early start to the fall fire season where catastrophic tree damage occurred. Confidence is too low in this scenario for now. Normal significant fire potential is forecast throughout the Southern Area for September.